Dinger Tuesday lands on a Monday night card this week, and the board is stacked around Cincinnati at Los Angeles, with the Cardinals in San Francisco as the early game. Every pick below comes off the PropsEdge HR Props and Heating Up sheets, which are looking for the same thing from two directions: batters whose barrels and exit velocity say the power is live right now, in a matchup and a park that cooperate.
Be clear-eyed about what these are. Home run props are long prices because most of them lose on any given night, and a card like this one is expected to come back with more misses than hits. What the sheets are trying to buy is a price that lags behind the batted-ball data. The receipts sit under each pick so you can see exactly what the model is reacting to instead of taking my word for it.
Tonight's home run picks
Hector Rodriguez, Home Run Over 0.5 (+210 at DraftKings Pick6)
- 5.8% HR rate vs RHP
- 10.3% BRL
- .200 ISO
- VS EMMET SHEEHAN
- CIN @ LAD, Mon 9:10pm ET
Source: HR Props cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
The shortest price on the board, and the HR Props sheet gets there through the platoon: a 5.8% home run rate against right-handed pitching from a left-handed bat, backed by a double-digit barrel rate and real isolated power. Emmet Sheehan is the right-hander, so the split lines up the way the sheet wants it. Low price means low payoff, so treat this one as the anchor rather than the swing.
Rafael Devers, Home Run Over 0.5 (+360 at FanDuel)
- 8 HR IN LAST 14 DAYS
- 26.3% BARREL RATE LAST 14D (SEASON 10.9%)
- 63.2% HARD HIT LAST 14D
- VS MICHAEL MCGREEVY (RHP)
- STL @ SF, Mon 8:10pm ET
Source: Heating Up cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
This is the loudest line on the sheet: a 26.3% barrel rate over the last two weeks against a season mark far below that, with the hard-hit rate moving in the same direction. Two-week samples are small and the sheets know it, but a barrel surge of that size usually means the swing decision and the contact point are both in a good place, not that a few flares found grass. He gets McGreevy, a right-hander, which is the split the Heating Up sheet wanted.
Shohei Ohtani, Home Run Over 0.5 (+270 at FanDuel)
- 20.0% BRL
- 20.5% BRL vs RHP
- 30 HR
- VS CHASE BURNS
- CIN @ LAD, Mon 9:10pm ET
Source: HR Props cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
A 20.5% barrel rate against right-handed pitching is the kind of number that does not need a hot streak attached to it, because that is simply what the season looks like. The 30 homers are the output; the barrel rate is the reason the sheet keeps listing him whether he went deep yesterday or not. Chase Burns is the right-hander, and at +270 you are paying for the best power profile on the card rather than a hunch about tonight.
Elly De La Cruz, Home Run Over 0.5 (+490 at FanDuel)
- 2 HR IN LAST 14 DAYS
- 24.2% BARREL RATE LAST 14D (SEASON 13.9%)
- 63.6% HARD HIT LAST 14D
- VS EMMET SHEEHAN (RHP)
- CIN @ LAD, Mon 9:10pm ET
Source: Heating Up cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
The home run total over the last two weeks is modest, which is exactly why the price is still long, but the contact underneath it has jumped: a 24.2% barrel rate over that stretch sits well clear of his season figure, with the hard-hit rate right there with it. That is the gap the Heating Up sheet is built to find, a batter squaring balls up faster than the results have caught up. Sheehan is the right-hander he sees.
Max Muncy, Home Run Over 0.5 (+330 at FanDuel)
- 26 HR
- 16.4% BRL vs RHP
- 5.3% HR rate vs RHP
- VS CHASE BURNS
- CIN @ LAD, Mon 9:10pm ET
Source: HR Props cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Muncy is the second left-handed bat in the Los Angeles lineup the HR Props sheet flagged against Chase Burns, and the split does most of the work: a 16.4% barrel rate versus right-handers, with a home run rate in that matchup to match. He has 26 on the season, so nothing here depends on a two-week hot run. The park and the handedness edge are the reasons this one is priced where it is rather than shorter.
The five above are what fits in a free column. A PropsEdge subscription is the whole board: the full HR Props and Heating Up sheets every day, projections for every game on the slate, the pick builder for stacking bats into a single card, and the line-shopping feed so you are not leaving price on the table when one book hangs a longer number than the rest. Home run props swing hard in both directions, so stake them like the long shots they are. Bet what you can afford to lose. If it stops being fun, stop.