Free Cheat Sheet
Who runs what into who can’t cover it — route-level matchup edges generic defense ranks completely miss. Free, updated all week.
The Route Mismatches Cheat Sheet is members-only right now
Four cheat sheets are free at any time, rotating with the season. Members always see every sheet. Already a member? Open it in the app.
This is a preview — members see the full Route Mismatches Cheat Sheet.
Every game, every player, full stat breakdowns, live odds comparison across 15+ sportsbooks, and 8 more daily cheat sheets.
Unlock the Full Sheet"They’re 28th against wide receivers" is the most overused stat in football betting, and one of the least useful. Defenses do not defend positions — they defend routes. A zone scheme that erases underneath slants can be helpless against deep outs; a press-man defense that suffocates verticals can bleed catches on curls all day.
This sheet crosses two datasets nobody else puts together: each receiver’s actual route diet, and the yards every defense allows on each specific route type. The result is a matchup score that knows a go-route specialist facing the league’s worst deep-ball defense is a smash — even when the generic position rank says the matchup is average.
The natural market is receiving yards. Pair a top mismatch score with recent form against the posted line, and shop the over price across books before betting. Members see the full route breakdown for every player on the slate, plus which specific routes to expect the damage on.
Want the price side of the equation too? Our Line Shopping sheet flags when one book is paying extra on the same over.
A receiver whose route diet lines up with the routes his opponent defends worst. A generic "12th vs WRs" rank hides this: a defense can be average overall while bleeding yards on go routes specifically — which matters enormously if this week’s opponent runs a go-heavy vertical route tree.
Charted route data: every route each receiver runs (slants, outs, gos, posts, digs, curls, corners, comebacks, flats) and the yards every defense allows against each route type, refreshed weekly through the season.
A 0–100 weighted sum of the player’s share of each route times the opponent’s softness against that route (rank 32 = most yards allowed). An alpha-route bonus rewards the most exploitable shape: a heavy diet of one route into a bottom-5 defense against it.
When a player runs 25%+ of one route type into a defense ranked bottom-5 against that exact route. It is the single strongest shape in the data — the offense will find that matchup repeatedly.
Receiving yards overs are the natural market. Check the L10 column first so you are not buying a great matchup on a player who never clears his posted number — the best spots pair a top mismatch score with a line the player has already been beating.
