Free Cheat Sheet — Saturday, July 11
Today's best home run prop targets, ranked by Statcast power scores, platoon matchups, park factors, and weather — free, updated daily.
Shohei OhtaniHOT
LAD vs AZ · Batting 1st
21.4% BRL vs RHP · 20 HR · 19.8% BRL
+220
FanDuel
Power score: 75.4
Teoscar Hernandez
LAD vs AZ · Batting 7th
15.6% BRL · 15.2% BRL vs RHP · 8 HR
+150
DraftKings Pick6
Power score: 71.8
Dalton Rushing
LAD vs AZ · Batting 8th
18.1% BRL · 17.4% BRL vs RHP · 6.1% HR rate vs RHP
+350
FanDuel
Power score: 66.9
Luis Campusano
SD vs TOR · Batting 8th
17.0% BRL · .619 SLG · 16.0% BRL vs RHP
+230
DraftKings Pick6
Power score: 66.9
Max Kepler
AZ vs LAD · Batting 5th
14.0% BRL vs RHP · 14.6% BRL
+210
DraftKings Pick6
Power score: 64.7
This is a preview — members see the full HR Props Cheat Sheet.
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Unlock the Full SheetHome run props are one of the most popular MLB markets, but recent HR totals are a poor predictor on their own. The signal lives in the underlying contact quality: barrel rate, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and launch angle. A hitter barreling the ball at a high rate will find the seats even if the box scores have not caught up yet.
Matchup context does the rest. Platoon splits (how the batter performs against today's starter handedness), career history against the pitcher, and the pitcher's own home-run vulnerability all shift a hitter's true HR probability. Then the environment: park HR factors and weather — wind direction, temperature, and roof status — can move home run likelihood by double-digit percentages.
Because HR props typically pay +200 or longer, small edges compound fast — but so does variance. Compare odds across books before betting (our members see prices from 15+ sportsbooks side by side), and consider sizing stakes with a Kelly calculator.
Each batter gets a composite power score built from Statcast data: barrel rate, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, ISO, and launch angle — weighted by the platoon matchup against today's starting pitcher. That gets adjusted for the ballpark's HR factor and the day's weather to produce a final ranking.
Barrel rate measures how often a hitter makes contact at the exit velocity and launch angle combination most likely to produce home runs. It is one of the most predictive Statcast metrics for future power output — far more stable than recent HR totals alone.
Even elite sluggers usually pay plus-money to homer — commonly +200 to +500 depending on the hitter, pitcher, and park. Because hit rates are low, HR props are high-variance bets: line shopping across books and betting only strong environments matters more than in most markets.
The sheet refreshes throughout the day as starting lineups, pitchers, weather, and odds are confirmed — typically starting the morning of each MLB slate. Confirmed batting orders matter: a hitter in the heart of the order gets more plate appearances.
The top targets of the day are free. PropsEdge members get the full sheet: every lineup with complete Statcast profiles, batter-vs-pitcher history, platoon splits, park and weather factors per game, and HR odds compared across 15+ sportsbooks.
