Tuesday, September 8 gives us a full night slate, and the two games doing most of the work here are Cincinnati at Los Angeles and Washington at San Diego, both under the lights late. All five plays come off the PropsEdge HR Props and Heating Up sheets, and the receipts are printed under each pick so you can see exactly what the sheets liked. Say it once and mean it: most home run tickets lose on any given night, and these are priced that way. You are buying one swing, not a probability.
Last Tuesday was a good example of how the math works. The card came in 1-4, +0.9u, and the money is positive only because Elly De La Cruz went deep at +490 while four others went quiet. That is the shape of this market. This week the sheets are pointing at batters whose barrel and hard-hit data says the power is live right now, in matchups and parks that do not fight it.
Last Tuesday's dingers
| Pick | Line | Result | Actual | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers Home Run (+360 at FanDuel) | Over 0.5 | LOSS | 0 vs 0.5 | -1.0u |
| Shohei Ohtani Home Run (+270 at FanDuel) | Over 0.5 | LOSS | 0 vs 0.5 | -1.0u |
| Elly De La Cruz Home Run (+490 at FanDuel) | Over 0.5 | WIN | 1 vs 0.5 | +4.9u |
| Max Muncy Home Run (+330 at FanDuel) | Over 0.5 | LOSS | 0 vs 0.5 | -1.0u |
| Hector Rodriguez Home Run (+210 at DraftKings Pick6) | Over 0.5 | LOSS | 0 vs 0.5 | -1.0u |
Last issue: +0.9u at flat 1-unit stakes. Record since the first issue: 1-4, +0.9u.
Last Tuesday's five graded out 1-4, +0.9u. Elly De La Cruz was the only one to clear, at +490, worth +4.9u on its own. Rafael Devers at +360, Shohei Ohtani at +270, Max Muncy at +330 and Hector Rodriguez at +210 all finished with nothing, a full unit down each. Four losses out of five and the card still turned a profit, which is the arithmetic of long prices and nothing more clever than that.
The one that hit was the longest price on the board, and the two shortest, Rodriguez at +210 and Ohtani at +270, both blanked. That is worth remembering when a name looks obvious: the market shortens the price on reputation before it shortens it on batted-ball data, so the profitable side of this sheet has usually been the hitter whose barrel rate moved recently rather than the hitter everyone already knows can do it.
Tonight's home run picks
Teoscar Hernandez, Home Run Over 0.5 (+340 at FanDuel)
- 18.9% BRL vs LHP
- 16.4% BRL
- 13 HR
- VS NICK LODOLO
- CIN @ LAD, Tue 10:10pm ET
Source: HR Props cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
The HR Props sheet flags him because his barrel rate climbs when a lefty is on the mound, 18.9% against left-handed pitching versus a lower overall figure, and the sheet lines that up with Nick Lodolo. He has 13 home runs on the season, so this is not a volume-leader play, it is a matchup-shape play. When the platoon split and the barrel data agree, that is usually the version of this market worth paying for.
Sal Stewart, Home Run Over 0.5 (+420 at FanDuel)
- 31 HR
- 16.6% BRL
- 16.2% BRL vs LHP
- VS TARIK SKUBAL
- CIN @ LAD, Tue 10:10pm ET
Source: HR Props cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Thirty-one home runs is the headline, and the barrel rate underneath it, 16.6% overall, says the total is earned rather than park-fed. The sheet has him opposite Tarik Skubal, which is the toughest assignment on this card and part of why the price is out at +420. You are betting that the swing plays against anyone and taking the extra return for the pitching quality.
Cal Raleigh, Home Run Over 0.5 (+270 at FanDuel)
- 4 HR IN LAST 14 DAYS
- 30.4% BARREL RATE LAST 14D (SEASON 13.3%)
- 60.9% HARD HIT LAST 14D
- VS CAL QUANTRILL (RHP)
- TEX @ SEA, Tue 9:40pm ET
Source: Heating Up cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
The Heating Up sheet exists for exactly this profile: a barrel rate of 30.4% over the last 14 days against a season mark less than half that, with the hard-hit share riding along at a similar clip. Four homers in that window means the contact is not just loud, it is leaving. He gets a right-handed starter in Cal Quantrill, which is the side of the platoon this swing is built for, and he is the shortest price on the card for a reason.
James Wood, Home Run Over 0.5 (+310 at FanDuel)
- 20.6% BRL vs RHP
- 30 HR
- 19.9% BRL
- VS CASEY MIZE
- WSH @ SD, Tue 9:40pm ET
Source: HR Props cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
A 20.6% barrel rate against right-handed pitching is close to the top of what this sheet ever prints, and he draws Casey Mize. Thirty home runs on the season with an overall barrel rate nearly as high as his split means there is no soft side to this bat. San Diego is not a gift park, which is most of the reason the number is still this long.
Daylen Lile, Home Run Over 0.5 (+490 at FanDuel)
- 4 HR IN LAST 14 DAYS
- 18.8% BARREL RATE LAST 14D (SEASON 8.5%)
- 56.2% HARD HIT LAST 14D
- VS CASEY MIZE (RHP)
- WSH @ SD, Tue 9:40pm ET
Source: Heating Up cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
The Heating Up sheet caught a barrel rate of 18.8% over the last 14 days against a season figure well under half that, with the hard-hit share moving in the same direction. Four homers in two weeks from a hitter the market still prices at +490 is the whole idea behind this sheet: the recent data has moved and the number has not. Same right-handed starter in Mize, same reason to look.
The free card is five of the plays. A subscription gets you the full HR Props and Heating Up sheets every week, projections for every game on the slate, the pick builder for stacking or fading what the sheets flag, and the line-shopping feed so you are not taking +270 somewhere when +310 is sitting one tab over. On a market this long, the price you get is most of the edge. Bet what you can afford to lose. If it stops being fun, stop.