Tuesday night gives us a full board, and the five names below come off two PropsEdge sheets: HR Props, which grades season-long power against the arm a batter is actually facing, and Heating Up, which flags hitters whose last two weeks of contact quality has jumped past their own baseline. Five swings tonight, across four games, from the early Cincinnati window through the late one in Colorado.
Say the obvious part out loud before anyone clicks a bet slip: these are long prices because most home run props lose on any given night, and most of these will. The point is not to be right often, it is to be holding the right side when a ball leaves. Every receipt the sheets used is printed under each pick, so you can read the case and pass on any of them you do not like.
Tonight's home run picks
Hunter Goodman, Home Run Over 0.5 (+300 at FanDuel)
- 38 HR
- 15.2% BRL vs RHP
- .256 ISO
- VS WALKER BUEHLER
- SD @ COL, Tue 8:40pm ET
Source: HR Props cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Goodman is the shortest price on the board tonight and the profile explains it: 38 home runs on the season, a barrel rate against right-handed pitching that plays, and an isolated power figure that says almost all of his damage is over the fence rather than off the wall. Buehler is the right-hander in front of him, and Goodman is doing this at home in Colorado, which is the friendliest place on any slate to attack a fly ball. At +300 you are paying up relative to the rest of the card, so treat it as the anchor and not the lottery ticket.
Elly De La Cruz, Home Run Over 0.5 (+490 at FanDuel)
- 6 HR IN LAST 14 DAYS
- 41.9% BARREL RATE LAST 14D (SEASON 14%)
- 80.6% HARD HIT LAST 14D
- VS YOSHINOBU YAMAMOTO (RHP)
- LAD @ CIN, Tue 6:40pm ET
Source: Heating Up cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
This is the loudest thing on the Heating Up sheet tonight: a barrel rate of 41.9% over the last 14 days against a season mark of 14%, which is a hitter squaring up a different class of contact than he usually does. The hard-hit share over that stretch is in the same territory, so it is not one flukey swing carrying the sample. Yamamoto is a tough draw and that is exactly why the price sits where it does, but the sheets are not asking you to bet the pitcher, they are asking you to bet the swing that is happening right now.
Coby Mayo, Home Run Over 0.5 (+340 at FanDuel)
- 20.3% BRL vs LHP
- 10.6% HR rate vs LHP
- 23 HR
- VS SEAN MANAEA
- BAL @ NYM, Tue 7:10pm ET
Source: HR Props cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Mayo's split is the whole case. A 10.6% home run rate against left-handed pitching means better than one in ten of his plate appearances versus a lefty has ended in the seats, and his barrel rate in that split backs it up rather than reading as noise on top of a small sample. Manaea is the left-hander, so the sheet gets the platoon edge it wants without having to hope for anything.
Jackson Merrill, Home Run Over 0.5 (+410 at FanDuel)
- 3 HR IN LAST 14 DAYS
- 27.9% BARREL RATE LAST 14D (SEASON 11.1%)
- 67.4% HARD HIT LAST 14D
- VS KYLE FREELAND (LHP)
- SD @ COL, Tue 8:40pm ET
Source: Heating Up cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Merrill lands on Heating Up because his barrel rate over the last 14 days, 27.9%, is well clear of his season figure, and three home runs in that window say the quality of contact is turning into results rather than warning-track outs. The wrinkle is that this is a left-handed bat facing Freeland, a left-hander, which normally cuts the other way. What buys it back is the venue: same Colorado ballpark as the Goodman pick, and a fly ball that dies elsewhere does not die there.
Max Muncy, Home Run Over 0.5 (+340 at FanDuel)
- 28 HR
- 16.1% BRL vs RHP
- 5.5% HR rate vs RHP
- VS RHETT LOWDER
- LAD @ CIN, Tue 6:40pm ET
Source: HR Props cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Nothing complicated here, just a left-handed power bat with 28 home runs getting a right-handed starter in Lowder. His barrel rate against right-handers sits at 16.1%, and the home run rate in that same split tells you the barrels are leaving rather than being caught. Cincinnati is a fine place to take that swing, and the price is level with the Mayo ticket.
The five above are the free slice. A PropsEdge subscription is the whole board: the full HR Props and Heating Up sheets every Tuesday and every other day of the week, projections for every game on the slate, the pick builder for stacking or trimming a card to the risk you actually want, and the line-shopping feed so you are not taking a worse number than the one that exists somewhere else. Long-price markets like this one are where a half-point of price does most of the work over a season. Bet what you can afford to lose. If it stops being fun, stop.