Tuesday night gives us a full board, and the five names below come straight off the PropsEdge HR Props and Heating Up sheets. HR Props is the season-long power view: barrel rate, isolated power, the pitcher standing in the way. Heating Up is the short window, the hitters whose last two weeks of contact quality look nothing like their baseline.
Say the obvious part out loud first: home run props are long prices because most of them lose. On any given night, the majority of these tickets are dead by the seventh. What the sheets are trying to do is find the swings where the price is longer than the batted-ball data and the matchup deserve. The receipts are printed under each pick, so you can see exactly what the sheet saw before you decide whether you agree.
Tonight's home run picks
Ketel Marte, Home Run Over 0.5 (+240 at FanDuel)
- 19.4% BRL vs LHP
- 22 HR
- 15.8% BRL
- VS KYLE FREELAND
- AZ @ COL, Tue 8:40pm ET
Source: HR Props cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Marte is the switch-hitter side of the same game, and his 19.4% barrel rate against left-handed pitching is the line that matters with Kyle Freeland on the mound. Twenty-plus homers with a season barrel rate that holds up across both sides is the profile HR Props keeps flagging, and the left-handed matchup is the version of him that hits the ball hardest. It is the shortest price on the card for a reason.
Drew Gilbert, Home Run Over 0.5 (+980 at FanDuel)
- 3 HR IN LAST 14 DAYS
- 17.6% BARREL RATE LAST 14D (SEASON 5.2%)
- 58.8% HARD HIT LAST 14D
- VS TAJ BRADLEY (RHP)
- MIN @ SF, Tue 9:45pm ET
Source: Heating Up cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
This is the Heating Up swing at its most extreme: a 17.6% barrel rate over the last fourteen days against a season figure of 5.2%, which is a hitter doing something genuinely different rather than getting lucky on three fly balls. The hard-hit rate over that same window backs it up, and three homers in two weeks means the damage is already showing up in the box scores. At this number you are paid for the possibility that the recent form is the real version, and Taj Bradley is a right-hander for a left-handed bat.
Hunter Goodman, Home Run Over 0.5 (+300 at FanDuel)
- 39 HR
- 15.3% BRL vs RHP
- .255 ISO
- VS MICHAEL SOROKA
- AZ @ COL, Tue 8:40pm ET
Source: HR Props cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Goodman has 39 homers on the year, and the sheet likes the shape of the matchup as much as the total: he is a right-handed bat with a barrel rate against right-handed pitching that sits near the top of the HR Props board, and Michael Soroka is the arm. The isolated power number says this is not a guy who trades singles for the occasional mistake, it is loud contact on a regular basis. First pitch is 8:40pm ET.
Elly De La Cruz, Home Run Over 0.5 (+390 at FanDuel)
- 4 HR IN LAST 14 DAYS
- 29.6% BARREL RATE LAST 14D (SEASON 15.1%)
- 66.7% HARD HIT LAST 14D
- VS JR RITCHIE (RHP)
- CIN @ ATL, Tue 7:15pm ET
Source: Heating Up cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
De La Cruz is on the Heating Up sheet with a 29.6% barrel rate over the last fourteen days against a season mark that was already among the better ones in the league. When a hitter with that kind of baseline doubles it for two weeks, you are looking at somebody squaring up almost everything, and the hard-hit rate over the window says the same thing. JR Ritchie is the right-hander, and this one starts early at 7:15pm ET.
Kyle Schwarber, Home Run Over 0.5 (+285 at FanDuel)
- 45 HR
- 16.4% BRL
- 15.8% BRL vs RHP
- VS DUSTIN MAY
- MIL @ PHI, Tue 6:40pm ET
Source: HR Props cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Forty-five homers is the headline, but the reason the sheet keeps him near the top is the barrel rate against right-handed pitching, which is where he does most of his work and where Dustin May has to live. Schwarber's whole offensive profile is built around the one outcome this market pays for, so the price rarely gets long, and the sheet is fine with that. The first pitch at 6:40pm ET makes him the earliest look on the card.
The free column is five picks. A PropsEdge subscription is the whole operation: the full HR Props and Heating Up sheets every day with every qualifying bat and its batted-ball receipts, projections for every game on the slate, the pick builder for putting your own board together from the same inputs, and the line-shopping feed so you are not taking a worse number than the one sitting two tabs away. On long-price markets like this one, the difference between the best and worst available price is most of the edge. Bet what you can afford to lose. If it stops being fun, stop.
Cover photo: Reunion, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons (source)
