Week 1 is the one week a year where everybody is guessing a little, so we leaned on the numbers that carried over rather than the ones people invented in August. These five come off the PropsEdge cheat sheets: TD Scorers, Prop Streaks, Line Shopping, Route Mismatches and Speed Mismatches.
The receipts are printed under each pick, exactly as the sheets have them. Nothing here is a projection built on a hunch; it is hit rates, usage share, route data, tracking speed and price gaps across the market. Record for the season starts at 0-0, and we will grade all of it in public next week.
The picks for Week 1
Derrick Henry, Anytime TD (-175 at Fanatics)
- 62% TD HIT RATE L8G
- 1.25 TDS/GAME L8G
- 59% RZ CARRIES
- 3/8 MULTI-TD GAMES
- BAL @ IND, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: TD Scorers cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
The number that matters here is the red zone share: 59% of Baltimore's red zone carries went to Henry over the sample, which is the closest thing to a job description you can get from a stat sheet. He found the end zone in more than half of those games and put up multiple scores in several of them, so this is not a one-week variance story. The price is short because everyone can see it, but touchdown equity that concentrated is worth paying for.
Jauan Jennings, Rec Yds Over 20.5 (-140 at Fanatics)
- OVER IN 13 STRAIGHT
- 100% OVER L10
- 90% OVER L20G
- 88% OVER LAST SEASON
- GB @ MIN, Sun 4:25pm ET
Source: Prop Streaks cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Over in 13 straight is the kind of line the Prop Streaks sheet exists to surface, and it holds up when you widen the window rather than falling apart. The low number is doing a lot of work: this is a floor bet on a receiver who gets targeted early rather than a bet on a big afternoon. New team, new offense, same profile, and the market has not moved the line to match the streak.
Cooper Kupp, Anytime TD (+400 at Fanatics)
- +400 at Fanatics vs +220 consensus
- 11.3 pts of price better than the market across 12 books
- Next best: +275 at BetMGM
- NE @ SEA, Wed 8:20pm ET
Source: Line Shopping cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
This one is pure price. Fanatics has him at +400 while the consensus across twelve books sits at +220, and the next best number anywhere is +275 at BetMGM. You do not need a strong opinion on how many looks Kupp gets in Seattle's opener to know that taking a touchdown at a big premium to what every other book thinks is the correct side of the trade. If the number comes down before kickoff, the edge is gone, so this is the one to check first.
Bucky Irving, Rec Yds Over 12.5 (-112 at betPARX)
- 70% FLATS — CIN #32 VS ROUTE
- 20% OUTS — CIN #26 VS ROUTE
- 70% OVER L10
- TB @ CIN, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: Route Mismatches cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Irving runs flats on 70% of his routes, and Cincinnati ranked dead last against that route last season. The outs add a second soft spot against the same defense, which means the two things he actually does are the two things this coverage handles worst. He has cleared this modest number in most of his recent games, and the line is priced like a coin flip.
Saquon Barkley, Rush Yds Over 75.5 (-114 at FanDuel)
- 21.8 MPH TOP SPEED
- +1.9 MPH VS WAS COVERAGE
- 9.0 MPH/S BURST
- 60% OVER L10 (Rush Yds)
- WAS @ PHI, Sun 4:25pm ET
Source: Speed Mismatches cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
The Speed Mismatches sheet has Barkley at a 21.8 MPH top speed, faster than what Washington's coverage players have shown, and his burst number says he gets to that speed in a hurry. That combination is how a decent day turns into a chunk run that clears the number by itself, which is the real argument for a rushing over at this line. He has gone over in more than half his recent games, and Philadelphia gives him the volume to get there even on a grind-it-out afternoon.
The free column is three or five picks a week. Subscribers get the whole thing: every cheat sheet updated each week, projections for every game on the slate, the pick builder for stacking correlated legs off the same sheets, and the line-shopping feed that flagged the Kupp price gap the moment it opened. That feed is the part most people underrate, because the same bet at a better number is the cheapest edge in this whole business. Bet what you can afford to lose. If it stops being fun, stop.