Week 1 is the hardest week to price and the easiest week to overthink. Everything below comes off the PropsEdge cheat sheets, specifically the Prop Streaks sheet, which tracks how often a player has cleared a given number and compares that to the rate the price demands.
The receipts sit under each pick: the streak, the hit rate over the recent sample, and the break-even the book is charging. Read them before you read my sentences. Three of these are in the email, all five are here, and the kickoffs run from Sunday early through Monday night.
The picks for Week 1
Jacoby Brissett, Pass Yds Over 199.5 (-190 at Fanatics)
- OVER IN 12 STRAIGHT
- 100% OVER L10
- 100% HIT RATE VS 66% BREAK-EVEN AT -190
- ARI @ LAC, Sun 4:25pm ET
Source: Prop Streaks cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Over in 12 straight is about as clean as the Prop Streaks sheet gets, and the number is low enough that Brissett gets there on volume rather than anything spectacular. The price is steep, so the question is whether the hit rate outruns what Fanatics is charging, and the sheet says it has been doing that comfortably. Arizona on the road in Los Angeles at 4:25pm ET is the kind of game script that keeps a quarterback throwing late.
Jk Dobbins, Rush Yds Over 48.5 (-115 at betPARX)
- OVER IN 4 STRAIGHT
- 90% OVER L10
- 90% HIT RATE VS 53% BREAK-EVEN AT -115
- DEN @ KC, Mon 8:15pm ET
Source: Prop Streaks cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Four straight overs on a number this modest tells you Dobbins is getting the carries that matter, not just the leftovers. Denver in Kansas City on Monday night is a spot where a back can lose work if the game gets away, which is the real risk here rather than the yardage itself. At -115 you are paying close to a coin flip for a rate the sheet has well above that.
Caleb Williams, Pass TDs Over 1.5 (+105 at BetMGM)
- OVER IN 7 STRAIGHT
- 80% OVER L10
- 58% OVER L19G
- 80% HIT RATE VS 49% BREAK-EVEN AT +105
- CHI @ CAR, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: Prop Streaks cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Touchdown props are lumpy by nature, so a run of seven straight overs is worth more than the usual yardage streak. The longer L19G sample is softer than the recent one, which is honest and worth knowing, but the direction of travel is toward more scoring through the air. Getting plus money at BetMGM on a market where the sheet has the hit rate above the break-even is the cleanest price on the board this week.
Terry Mclaurin, Rec Yds Over 45.5 (-135 at Fanatics)
- OVER IN 4 STRAIGHT
- 80% OVER L10
- 80% HIT RATE VS 57% BREAK-EVEN AT -135
- WAS @ PHI, Sun 4:25pm ET
Source: Prop Streaks cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Four straight overs on a receiving line this short means McLaurin is clearing it on target share alone, without needing a long one. Washington in Philadelphia is a game where the Commanders may be throwing to catch up, and that is the version of the script this prop wants. The Fanatics price asks for a lot less than the sheet has been delivering over the recent sample.
Devon Achane, Rush Yds Over 65.5 (-135 at Fanatics)
- 90% OVER L10
- 69% OVER L16G
- 90% HIT RATE VS 57% BREAK-EVEN AT -135
- MIA @ LV, Sun 4:25pm ET
Source: Prop Streaks cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
No active streak on this one, which is why it sits last, but 90% over the last ten games is the strongest recent rate of anything on this list. The longer L16G number cools that off and tells you there were quiet weeks mixed in, usually the ones where Miami fell behind early. Against Las Vegas at 4:25pm ET the ceiling is obvious given how quickly Achane turns one crease into a chunk.
The free column is five picks. Subscribers get the full cheat sheets every week, including the ones these came from, plus projections for every game on the slate, the pick builder for putting your own cards together off those projections, and the line-shopping feed so you are not laying a worse price than you have to on the exact same side. Bet what you can afford to lose. If it stops being fun, stop.