Week 2 is here and the boards have loosened up from the openers. Everything below comes straight off the PropsEdge cheat sheets: TD Scorers, Prop Streaks, Line Shopping and Route Mismatches. Nothing here is a hunch dressed up as research.
The receipts are printed under each pick, exactly as the sheets spit them out, so you can see what the case rests on before you decide whether you agree. Five plays, all Sunday except one Monday nighter. Read the bullets, shop the price, take what you like and leave the rest.
The picks for Week 2
Chase Brown, Anytime TD (+105 at Bet365)
- 4 GAME TD STREAK
- 62% TD HIT RATE L8G
- 1.12 TDS/GAME L8G
- 46% RZ CARRIES
- CIN @ HOU, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: TD Scorers cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Brown comes off the TD Scorers sheet with a four game touchdown streak behind him, and the reason is usage rather than luck: he is taking 46% of Cincinnati's red zone carries. That is the share you want when you are paid better than even money on a guy who only needs one goal line look to cash. Against Houston the offense may have to grind for its points, which is the version of the game plan that runs through him.
Caleb Williams, Pass TDs Over 1.5 (-116 at Bet365)
- OVER IN 8 STRAIGHT
- 90% OVER L10
- 60% OVER L20G
- 90% HIT RATE VS 54% BREAK-EVEN AT -116
- MIN @ CHI, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: Prop Streaks cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Prop Streaks has Williams over this number in eight straight, and more importantly the sheet flags the hit rate against the break even at -116, which is the whole argument in one line. Two touchdown passes is a modest ask for an offense that has been getting there without needing a blowup game. Divisional matchups tend to stay upright and competitive, and he only has to find the end zone twice.
Justin Jefferson, Anytime TD (+210 at Fanatics)
- +210 at Fanatics vs +115 consensus
- 14.3 pts of price better than the market across 9 books
- Next best: +190 at Bet365
- MIN @ CHI, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: Line Shopping cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
This one is a Line Shopping play first and a Jefferson play second. Fanatics has him at +210 while the consensus sits at +115, and the next best number on the board is +190 at Bet365, so the gap is real rather than a stale screen. If you can only get the consensus price, the edge is gone and you should pass; the pick is the number, not the name.
Tetairoa McMillan, Rec Yds Over 55.5 (-110 at Fanatics)
- 80% OUTS — ATL #30 VS ROUTE
- 20% GO ROUTES — ATL #20 VS ROUTE
- 60% OVER L10
- 60% HIT RATE VS 52% BREAK-EVEN AT -110
- CAR @ ATL, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: Route Mismatches cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Route Mismatches likes this because 80% of McMillan's routes are outs and Atlanta ranks #30 against that route. That is the cleanest kind of mismatch on the sheet: the thing he does most is the thing they defend worst, so he does not need a broken coverage to get to this number. He has gone over in more than half his last ten as well, which is enough at a standard price.
Cameron Skattebo, Anytime TD (+125 at Bet365)
- 4 GAME TD STREAK
- 75% TD HIT RATE L8G
- 1.00 TDS/GAME L8G
- 50% RZ CARRIES
- NYG @ LAR, Mon 8:15pm ET
Source: TD Scorers cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Skattebo is the other TD Scorers name, and his red zone workload is the strongest of the two at 50% of the carries inside the twenty. He has scored in four straight, so the Giants are not hiding what they want to do when they get close. The Rams matchup is the concern and the price reflects it, but a plus number on a back with that share of the goal line work is the trade this sheet is built to find. Monday night, so you have time to shop it.
These five are the sample. A PropsEdge subscription gets you the full sheets every week rather than the handful that fit in a column, projections for every game on the slate, the pick builder for stacking your own card off those projections, and the line shopping feed that found the Jefferson number before it moved. That last piece pays for itself the first time you catch a price the rest of the market has not corrected. Bet what you can afford to lose. If it stops being fun, stop.