Last week's card came back with three winners out of four, +1.0u. The miss was Chase Brown at +115 on the anytime touchdown, who finished the day with nothing, and there is no clever way to dress that up: a touchdown prop is a bet on a single event happening, and plenty of good ones do not happen. The other three all landed, though one of them was priced so short that winning barely moved the ledger.
That puts the season at 10-9, +0.9u. More wins than losses and a small profit, which is roughly what a card built on honest prices looks like over time. This week's three come off the TD Scorers, Prop Streaks and Line Shopping sheets, and the receipts are printed under each pick so you can argue with them yourself.
Last issue's picks
| Pick | Line | Result | Actual | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown Anytime TD (+115 at Fanatics) | Anytime TD | LOSS | 0 vs 0.5 | -1.0u |
| Rome Odunze Rec Yds (-116 at Bet365) | Over 39.5 | WIN | 43 vs 39.5 | +0.9u |
| Jacoby Brissett Pass TDs (-278 at Bally Bet) | Over 0.5 | WIN | 1 vs 0.5 | +0.4u |
| Kyren Williams Anytime TD (-125 at Fanatics) | Anytime TD | WIN | 1 vs 0.5 | +0.8u |
Last issue: +1.0u at flat 1-unit stakes. Record since the first issue: 10-9, +0.9u.
Four picks went up last week and all four graded. Chase Brown's anytime touchdown at +115 lost outright with no score, the full stake gone. Rome Odunze went over 39.5 receiving yards with 43, a win at -116. Jacoby Brissett went over 0.5 passing touchdowns with one, which was the right side but at -278 returned +0.36u, less than a third of what the Brown loss cost. Kyren Williams found the end zone for an anytime touchdown win at -125. Three winners, one loss, +1.0u on the week, and the arithmetic of that week is worth sitting with: it took three correct calls to cover one wrong one and put a unit in the column.
The edge that held up was the volume prop, not the touchdown prop. Odunze's over came from a receiver who gets targets whether or not the offence cooperates, and the yardage market lets you be roughly right rather than exactly right. Touchdown bets are all or nothing and split one-one last week, which is about what you should expect from them. The other lesson is in the Brissett line: -278 was very likely correct and paid almost nothing for being correct, so those only belong on a card when the sheet says the price is genuinely wrong, not merely safe.
This week's picks
Kyren Williams, Anytime TD (+115 at Fanatics)
- 5 GAME TD STREAK
- 62% TD HIT RATE L8G
- 0.75 TDS/GAME L8G
- 67% RZ CARRIES
- LAR @ DEN, Sun 8:20pm ET
Source: TD Scorers cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Williams cashed this same market last week at a shorter number and shows up again with a five game touchdown streak behind him. The part that matters more than the streak is the red zone workload: he is taking the clear majority of the carries inside the twenty, which is the only reliable way a running back manufactures scores. Getting plus money on a back with that role is the whole reason he is on the card.
Rome Odunze, Rec Yds Over 27.5 (-116 at Bet365)
- OVER IN 4 STRAIGHT
- 80% OVER L10
- 88% OVER L16G
- 80% HIT RATE VS 54% BREAK-EVEN AT -116
- PHI @ CHI, Mon 8:15pm ET
Source: Prop Streaks cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
Odunze cleared the number last week and this one is set lower, which is the kind of adjustment that tends to favour the bettor rather than the book. He has gone over in four straight and in 80% of his last ten, and the sheet flags that hit rate against what the price actually requires. Monday night, a lower line, and a receiver who is on the field for the bulk of the passing snaps is a straightforward combination.
Khalil Shakir, Anytime TD (+350 at Bet365)
- +350 at Bet365 vs +174 consensus
- 14.3 pts of price better than the market across 9 books
- Next best: +220 at BetMGM
- LAC @ BUF, Sun 1:00pm ET
Source: Line Shopping cheat sheet (free preview, no account needed) · open in the app
This one is not a read on Shakir so much as a read on the board. Across nine books the consensus on him is +174, and Bet365 is sitting out on its own well above that, with the next best number at BetMGM still nowhere near it. Same bet, same outcome, materially more money back when it hits, and that price gap is the entire case.
What the market moved
- Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) Pass TDs, ATL @ GB: ▲ 0.5 → 1.5 PASS TDS; UNDER JUICED 35 PTS; 12 BOOKS MOVED
- Bijan Robinson (ATL) Rush Longest, ATL @ GB: ▼ 24.5 → 15.5 RUSH LONGEST; 7 BOOKS MOVED
- Bijan Robinson (ATL) Reception Longest, ATL @ GB: ▼ 22.5 → 16.5 RECEPTION LONGEST; 7 BOOKS MOVED
Full list on the Steam Moves cheat sheet.
The three above are what fits in a free column. A subscription gets the full cheat sheets every week, including TD Scorers, Prop Streaks and Line Shopping in their entirety rather than the top few names, plus projections for every game on the slate, the pick builder for putting your own card together off those projections, and the live line-shopping feed that catches moves like Michael Penix Jr.'s passing touchdown line going from 0.5 to 1.5 with twelve books following it. Bet what you can afford to lose. If it stops being fun, stop.